Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Shutdown Ends, Markets Shift as AI Stocks Cool

On November 14th, the longest ever U.S. government shutdown ended after 43-days after a Congressional bill was passed to fund the government through January 30, 2026, restoring federal operations and backpay for workers. It is estimated the event reduced Q4 economic growth by 1.5 percentage points, but many expect economic growth will rebound in 2026. The technology sector (particularly AI companies), which recently led market gains, has underperformed to begin November as investors rotated into health care, energy, and materials sectors. The probability of a December Fed rate cut dropped sharply to below 50%. Bond yields rose across maturities as Fed officials continue to signal caution on rate cuts. Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended its decline. Market volatility increased, with the VIX remaining elevated and the S&P 500 bouncing off key technical support but not setting new highs. However, S&P 500 earnings outperformed expectations, supporting broader market resilience despite recent sector rotation and uncertainty over delayed economic data releases.