Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Nine-Week Rally as Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Tumbling

Courtesy of Allen Davis, CFP®

US markets extended their historic rally during the week, with stocks climbing to fresh records as optimism grew around a potential peace deal with Iran and artificial intelligence continued to drive corporate earnings growth. The S&P 500 rose 1.4% for the week, marking its ninth consecutive weekly advance—the longest winning streak since 2023 and a run matched only a few times in the past four decades. Treasury yields declined across the curve as reports of a tentative US-Iran ceasefire agreement eased inflationary pressures from energy markets. WTI crude oil plunged nearly 9% to close the week at $87.95 per barrel as markets priced in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation — rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2023, driven by war-related energy price increases, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.3% annually. Overall, markets navigated a complex environment where strong AI-driven earnings momentum offset persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, with investors increasingly confident that the economic expansion remains intact despite elevated energy costs.