Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Trade Tensions Rise as Gold Hits Record Highs

The U.S. government shutdown entered its second week and has become the fourth longest on record with low expectations of a quick resolution. Despite this, markets chopped sideways most of the week until experiencing a selloff on Friday, following President Trump’s announcing the potential for higher tariffs on Chinese imports. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all posted weekly losses, breaking a multi-week rally. Despite mounting disruptions from the shutdown, markets appear focused on AI sector headlines, expectations of falling interest rates in months ahead, and trade policy developments. A bright spot in the volatility, gold continued to surge as its price broke above $4,000 per ounce, reflecting potential longer-term fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve released meeting minutes reaffirming expectations for further rate cuts, even as economic data releases are delayed by the shutdown. It appears the Federal Reserve may be “operating in the dark” as labor market data is suspended, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to pull in some furloughed workers to release the October CPI on October 24 before suspending further data. Looking ahead, Q3 earnings season is set to begin, with expectations for continued growth in corporate profits.